We’ve completed Part A of the Our Coast Our Future Coastal Strategy! This project phase has sought to better understand what we value about our coast and how coastal changes may impact these values now and into the future. Guided by the Victoria’s Resilient Coast – Adapting for 2100+ framework and guidelines, this project has delivered on stages 1 to 4 of the guidelines. Factsheet #6 Stage 1 to 4 Summary provides a detailed overview of this part of the project including:

  • Community values appreciation
  • Coastal hazard extents for the Shire
  • Risk, vulnerability and economic assessments
  • Evidence-based determination of 11 priority coastal townships requiring coastal adaptation:
    • Somers, Flinders, Balnarring Beach, Hastings, Rosebud, Mount Eliza, Mornington, Mount Martha, Safety Beach, Sorrento and Portsea.

A key finding from the project is the cost of non-intervention. For built assets (public and private) we expect the following Annual Average Damages (AAD) if we maintain current management practices:

  • Short-term (now – 2040): $8.6M AAD
  • Medium-term (2040 – 2070): $22.0M AAD
  • Long-term (2070 – 2100): $67.3M AAD

The emerging risk profile from short to longer-term is not linear with a notable step-change for some hazards and asset types, particularly between medium and longer-term sea levels rise projections. This indicates a good opportunity to undertake adaptation over coming decades, to mitigate the step-change before it occurs and avoid (or minimise) associated impacts.

We encourage you to start with Factsheet #6 Stage 1 to 4 Summary which provides a detailed overview. Accompanying technical reports are also available if you wish to take a deeper dive.

Thank you to everyone who shared their feedback throughout Part A. Your input has helped define our coastal values and continues to inform how we will respond to expected changes along out coastline.

Where to from here?

The Shire wide coastal hazard maps developed as part of this project are now informing a proactive approach to managing sustainable coastal development. We have developed a set of guidelines to support landowners and permit applicants developing land in areas vulnerable to coastal hazards. The Coastal Hazard Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Guidelines help applicants understand and mitigate erosion, inundation and storm surge risks to proposed developments. To learn more about the guidelines please refer to mornpen.vic.gov.au/coastalriskguidelines

We are now commencing further coastal adaptation planning and action at our 11 priority coastal townships. This will be done via Part B of the Our Coast Our Future Coastal Strategy which will focus on delivering Stages 5-7 of the Victoria’s Resilient Coast – Adapting for 2100+ framework and guidelines, creating adaptation pathways, a Coastal Hazard Adaptation and Resilience Plan (CHARP) and delivering adaptation actions. Part B will involve ongoing stakeholder and community consultation throughout 2025. Stay tuned for updates in the new year.

Background

Through the Shire’s Our Coast Our Future, we’re developing a long-term plan to manage coastal hazard impacts across our region.

The Shire was awarded funding through the state government’s Victoria’s Resilient Coast grants program. This initiative aims to assist coastal land managers to deliver strategic coastal hazard risk management and adaptation.


The study area

Our Coast Our Future will include all our coastal communities along the Peninsula. We have grouped these communities into five areas. This allows us to explore community values, coastal processes and coastal hazards at a more localised scale.

Click on a region below to look a further detail related to your local area or favourite beach.

A strategic approach to adaptation

The outcomes of this work allow us to better understand the region’s coastal hazards and possible implications for our local communities, now and into the future. With improved understanding of hazards and potential at-risk areas along our coastline, we can work to identify different ways to manage these locations through adaptation.

Our Coast Our Future will include the development of a Coastal Strategy to guide our adaptation planning and its implementation.

Understanding coastal hazards

The coastal hazards we’re assessing include erosion (sand loss), inundation (flooding) and changes to groundwater.

What are coastal hazards?

  • Storm-tide inundation: temporary flooding of low-lying coastal land from elevated sea levels, often due to storm events;
  • Coastal erosion: winds, waves, and coastal currents shift sediment (sand) away from the shoreline
  • Permanent inundation: long-term inundation due to sea level rise (such as regular flooding from tides)
  • Groundwater changes: groundwater (water table) rising nearer to the ground surface due climate change (including sea level rise). Shallow groundwater (<2m below the ground surface), is considered a hazard.

See our fact sheet series to find out more about coastal hazards.

Examining coastal hazards

We have been using range of existing coastal models, data sets and studies to estimate coastal hazards for the region. This has helped us identify areas along the Peninsula potentially impacted by different coastal hazard types for a range of current and future conditions (including sea level rise).

We have combined outputs from various coastal hazard models for the region’s marine and coastal areas. The estimated hazards are shown on the Our Coast Our Future hazard maps (see these maps in our document library).